By James F. Kollie, Principal Advisor, Cardinal Point Advisors | April 13, 2025
As geopolitical tensions and trade wars between major economies disrupt global supply chains, countries like Liberia—often sidelined in traditional trade networks—have a rare opportunity to redefine their economic trajectories. With exports dominated by iron ore, rubber, and minimal gold, Liberia must act strategically to leverage this moment. Here’s how the nation can pivot from fragility to resilience and growth.
1. Diversify Agriculture and Agro-Processing
There is no dispute that Liberia is an agrarian economy. In this sector, we employ over 70% of its population and we still argue that it remains underutilized. While rubber dominates exports, the country has untapped potential in coffee, cocoa, oil palm, and cassava. There are many who dream that Liberia could move into services and tourism, but I will argue that those sectors require significant investment in physical infrastructure and human capital development. As important and promising as they are, I think they should come next in the pecking order. While we continue to collect rent from the exploitation of our depletable resources like iron ore and gold, we should the rent to begin to develop the infrastructure required to advance into services and tourism. However, the luxury of time is not there and therefore, we need to capitalize on the current global disruption to leapfrog our economy.
To capitalize on trade wars:
- Shift to Value Addition: Instead of exporting raw rubber, invest in processing facilities for tires, latex products, or biofuels. Similarly, we can transform cocoa and coffee into premium goods for international markets. Even if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is no longer available, there is a global demand for these products and Liberia can position herself to tap into this market.
- Leverage our vast arable land: Liberia has a vast amount of land that can be used to grow various agricultural products, ranging from rice to cassava to soybeans. Why not attract companies from China, India, Vietnam, or Russia to begin to grow and process these products in Liberia? Once there are mega farms, these will create market opportunities for outgrowers and smallholders.
- Leverage Regional Demand: With Africa’s food import bill exceeding $60 billion annually, Liberia can target regional markets like ECOWAS by boosting rice and cassava production, reducing reliance on East Asian imports.
Example: The World Bank’s Rural Economic Transformation Project has already increased crop yields for 64,572 farmers. Scaling such initiatives could position Liberia as a regional breadbasket.
2. Accelerate Intra-Africa Trade Under AfCFTA
Africa’s intra-regional trade stands at just 15–20%, far below Europe (70%) or Asia (60%). Liberia’s membership in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a lifeline:
- Target Niche Markets: Export timber, palm oil, and aquaculture products to neighboring countries. For instance, Ghana’s $1.7 billion poultry import gap could be filled by Liberian poultry farms.
- Digital Trade Platforms: Adopt the Africa Trade Gateway to connect SMEs with buyers across the continent, bypassing traditional barriers.
Policy Action: Streamline cross-border customs and reduce non-tariff barriers, as recommended in Liberia’s Diagnostic Trade Integrated Study.
3. Revive Tourism as a Revenue Engine
Liberia’s pristine beaches, rainforests, and cultural heritage remain underexploited. Post-Ebola and COVID-19, global travelers seek “off-the-beaten-path” destinations:
- Eco-Tourism and Surfing: Robertsport’s surf-friendly waves and Lake Piso’s biodiversity are prime assets. The Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) has already built visitor centers and trained 200 stakeholders here.
- Cultural Festivals: Annual events like the 2022 Cultural Festival can attract diaspora engagement and international tourists.
Investment Needed: Partner with platforms like Afreximbank to fund hotel infrastructure and market Liberia as a sustainable tourism hub.
4. Build Renewable Energy and Infrastructure
High electricity costs (over $0.54/kWh) and poor roads stifle industrialization.
Solutions include:
- Solar and Hydropower: The World Bank-backed RESPITE Project is developing 20 MW solar plants and expanding the Mt. Coffee Hydropower Plant. Reliable energy can attract light manufacturing (e.g., textiles, pharmaceuticals) to replace imports.
- Port Modernization: Buchanan and Monrovia ports, critical for export logistics, require upgrades to handle increased agro-processing output.
5. Foster Digital and Financial Inclusion
Only 45% of Liberians have mobile phones, and SMEs struggle with trade finance. To bridge gaps:
- Mobile Money Systems: The REALISE Project has already connected 53,000 households to digital payments. Scaling this can empower rural farmers and informal traders.
- E-Commerce Readiness: Implement the 2018 e-Trade Readiness Assessment to integrate Liberia into global digital value chains.
Conclusion: A Call for Strategic Partnerships
Liberia’s success hinges on collaboration. The government must:
- Strengthen institutions (e.g., the National Investment Commission) to attract FDI in agro-processing and renewables.
- Partner with Afreximbank and the World Bank to de-risk private investments.
- Prioritize education and vocational training to build human capital for a diversified economy.
Trade wars are not just disruptions—they are invitations to innovate. By focusing on regional integration, value addition, and green energy, Liberia can transform from a commodity-dependent nation into a resilient, diversified economy. The time to act is now.
Let’s discuss: What other sectors should Liberia prioritize? Share your thoughts below. #EconomicDevelopment #TradeWars #LiberiaRising #AfCFTA #SustainableGrowth
